Morning Comments – Thursday September 15, 2016

Posted By :
Comments : 0

Wednesday’s commodity market was lower for soybeans, higher for corn and wheat. Specs and commercials pushed the soybean market lower based on higher production numbers in the September USDA WASDE report released on Monday morning and on continued good weather and strong crop condition ratings. The Macro Markets were negative as the DOW was lower; Oil lower and the US Dollar Index trading higher. The Dow closed at 18,035 down 32 points for the day. Crude Oil closed at $43.68, down $1.22 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) October 16 to October 17 spread closed tonight at $5.91 carry to October 2017. October Heating Oil closed at $1.3874, down $0.0349 per gallon. The US Dollar Index closed at $95.31, down $0.33. The 10-year US Treasury bond closed weaker at a 1.73% yield and the 30-year bond closed at 2.47%. Wednesday’s CBOT closes were 1.25 to 3 cents per bushel higher for corn, 1 to 1.25 cents lower for soybeans and 2 to 5.25 cents lower for Chicago wheat. Cash bids at the river have traded at $10.08 after they reached $11.47+ for November through January for soybeans and SEP corn is trading around $3.16 after hitting a top in $4.65-4.75 area for JAN delivery corn. We are currently bidding about $0.15 to $0.20 behind those prices for the same time slots at our local elevators. If you need help with marketing and logistics, we can help sell your crop arrange transportation to the terminals if necessary. Argentine corn plantings for this fall are estimated up 18% at 14.08 million acres versus the 11.12 million acres planted last fall. This new corn acreage will be about 15% of what is planted in the US.
USDA Crop Progress reports released Monday afternoon estimated corn Good-Excellent condition at 74% versus 74% LW, 68% LYR and 54.4% for the 5-year average. The soybean condition ratings were 73% GE, 73% LW and 61% last year with a 5-year average of 55.0%. Missouri Corn condition was reported as 75% GE, 75% LW, 51% LYR and 42.0% – 5yr. avg. Missouri Soybeans were 74% GE, 74% LW, 32% LYR and 37.8% – 5-year average. This report was bearish. Missouri corn condition is rated 24% better than last year and Missouri soybeans are 42% better than one year ago. The current weather remains crop friendly and is pressuring prices.
A new tech startup in the field of grain yield prediction is sending out information to a group of Beta Testers of which I am one. The name of the program is Kernel and it is being developed by TellUSLabs. You can check them out at: www.telluslabs.com/kernel Their prediction on 8-30-16 was: Corn at 171 bpa on 86.55 million harvested acres, yielding a total US Corn Crop of 14.81 billion bushels and Soybeans at 50.4 bpa on 86.55 million harvested acres, yielding a total US Soybean Crop of 4.36 billion bushels. This technology utilizes improved satellite imagery and soil moisture prediction technology in order to predict crop yields. Their predictions today are 171.4 bpa for corn and 51.7 bpa for soybeans. Check out our Daily Grain Bids (updated every 10 minutes during the trading session) by clicking on: www.buchheitagri.com/biehle-grain-bids/ or www.buchheitagri.com/morehouse-grain-bids/ or feel free to call us at 800-622-7937 (ask for Katlyn, Eric or Dave) or call 573-667-9921 or 573-768-0489 and ask for Shon.
Long Liquidation by the Specs and Commercials pushed the soybean and meal markets lower today as Specs bought 5,000 contracts of corn to finish the day at 174,000 contracts short. They sold 3,000 contracts of soybeans to close at 62,000 contracts long and they bought 2,000 contracts of wheat to close at 131,000 contracts short. Specs sold 3,000 contracts of SBM and are long 28,000 contracts of Soybean Meal.
CIF bids for corn and soybeans have softened in the Gulf, wheat CIF is softer with September wheat at (28 bid-35 ask), OND wheat (55 bid-no offer) and JFM (50 bid – 60 ask). October soybeans were quoted (80 bid-82 ask). Sep corn was quoted (no bid-52 ask), LH Sep was quoted (no bid – 57 ask); October corn was (54 bid-57 asked) and DEC corn was (58 bid-61 ask), JFM (54 bid – 58 ask).
Fescue prices were quite strong during the 2016 Harvest. We paid prices to range from $0.48 to $0.50 per pound. A good fescue fertility program involves the addition of 40 lbs. of nitrogen per acre in late August, followed by an application of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in the spring. You can spray 2,4-D and Dicamba for weeds in either the spring or fall. If you have a very heavy infestation of weeds, you might consider doing both.
We have updated our test plot results on our website, you can check out our 2015 corn yields and some 2014 soybean and corn yields at: http://www.buchheitagri.com/tech-park-data
Be sure to check out our website at: www.buchheitagri.com and see the marketing information available. If you scroll down on the front page you will find our market info page supported by AgriCharts. If you examine the left hand side of that page you will discover the options that allow you to create price graphs or charts and also to check on historical spread information.
We are providing a DP program for those producers wanting to wait for a better day in the markets. We can help develop a marketing plan and a floor price program. Call Katlyn, Chad, Eric or Dave at 800-622-7937, Shon at 573-667-9921 or 768-0489.