Morning Comments-Thursday July 28 2016

Posted By :
Comments : 0
Commodity Market                                                                 Thursday July 28, 2016
Wednesday’s commodity market was higher for soybeans and corn, lower for wheat.  Specs and commercials pushed the soybean market sharply higher after a forecast for higher temperatures in some of the drier areas of the Corn Belt and due to strong commercial buying in both soybeans and soybean meal.  The Macro Markets were negative as the DOW was lower; Oil lower and the US Dollar Index trading lower.  The Dow closed at 18,472 down 2 points for the day.  Crude Oil closed at $41.91, down $1.01 per barrel.  The West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) September 16 to September 17 spread closed tonight at $5.54 carry to September 2017.   August Heating Oil closed at $1.2980, down $0.0280 per gallon.  The US Dollar Index closed at $96.74, down $0.42.  The 10-year US Treasury bond closed down slightly at a 1.52% yield and the 30-year bond closed at 2.24%.  Wednesday’s CBOT closes were 2 to 3.5 cents per bushel higher for corn, 10.5 to 17 cents higher for soybeans and 0.25 to 2 cents lower for Chicago wheat.  Cash bids at the river have traded at $10.18 after they reached $11.90+ for November through January for soybeans and SEP corn is trading around $3.49 after hitting a top in $4.65-4.75 area for JAN delivery corn.  We are currently bidding about $0.15 to $0.20 behind those prices for the same time slots.
Please mark your calendar for our annual “Cattle Call”, cattle meeting with some of our local veterinarians participating in an informative panel discussing the potential issues with the new VFD regulations that will come into effect on January 1st, 2017.  The meeting is Tuesday, August 9th from 5-8:00 pm in the St. Maurus Parish Hall, 10198 State Highway B, Biehle, MO.  Please contact our office at 573-547-4569 (800-622-7937) and let us know if you can attend.  We will serve an excellent meal with drinks and dinner provided free of charge.  We will have some great giveaways and expert talks on forage, reproduction, nutrition, vaccinations, management and markets.       
Check out our Daily Grain Bids (updated every 10 minutes during the trading session) by clicking on: www.buchheitagri.com/biehle-grain-bids/  or www.buchheitagri.com/morehouse-grain-bids/  or feel free to call us at 800-622-7937 (ask for Katlyn, Eric or Dave) or call 573-667-9921 or 573-768-0489 and ask for Shon.
USDA Crop Progress reports released Monday afternoon estimated corn Good-Excellent condition at 76% versus 76% LW, 69% LYR and 59.2% for the 5-year average.  The soybean condition ratings were 71% GE, 71% LW and 62% last year with a 5-year average of 58.4%.  Missouri Corn condition was reported as 74% GE, 73% LW, 50% LYR and 48.4% – 5yr. avg.  Missouri Soybeans were 68% GE, 67% LW, 29% LYR and 42.6% – 5-year average.  This report was bearish.  Missouri corn condition is rated 24% better than last year and Missouri soybeans are 39% better than one year ago.  We are still very much in a weather market!  The current weather has been crop friendly and is pressuring prices.
Long Accumulation by the Specs and Commercials pushed the soybean and meal markets higher today as Specs bought 7,000 contracts of corn to finish the day at 40,000 contracts short. They bought 5,000 contracts of soybeans to close at 85,000 contracts long and they bought 0 contracts of wheat to close at 117,000 contracts short.  Specs bought 4,000 contracts of SBM and are long 49,000 contracts of Soybean Meal.
CIF bids have strengthened in the Gulf with August wheat at (35 bid-42 asked), OND wheat (55 bid-80 ask).  October soybeans were quoted (85 bid-89 ask).  August corn was quoted (71 bid-75 ask), Sep was quoted (75-80) and October corn was (77 bid-82 asked).
Barge freight has been trading at remarkably low levels.  Freight firmed 60-70% in the last three weeks with the nearby July quote at 250-265%.  August at 300-375.  Harvest barges traded today at 435-500 for SEP and 490-510 for OCT.
 Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle were mixed-higher on Wednesday.  August hogs were lower losing $2.93 and October losing $2.58 to close at $61.05.  August Live Cattle closed at $113.95, up $0.08 and October Live Cattle were up $0.48, closing at $113.05.  August Feeder Cattle were down $0.18, closing at $142.28 and October Feeder Cattle closed at $140.25.  The pork cutout was $4.02 lower at $82.49.  The Choice Beef cut-out value was down $0.85 at $199.08 and the Select Beef trade was down $0.77 at $190.05.  Cash cattle are called steady on Thursday and cash hogs are called steady to $1 lower.  Packers and feedlot salespeople are trading show lists with little hope of much trade until Thursday or Friday.  Feedlots are asking $118-120 in the South and $194+ in the beef in the Northern lots.  There are not as many cattle on feedlot show lists this week.  The tone is mixed as most folks are current, but the Cattle on Feed Report showed an oncoming bulge in the heavy cattle, followed by a drop off in market ready cattle in a couple of months.
Fescue prices were quite strong during the 2016 Harvest.  We paid prices to range from $0.48 to $0.50 per pound.  A good fescue fertility program involves the addition of 40 lbs. of nitrogen per acre in late August, followed by an application of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in the spring.  You can spray 2,4-D and Dicamba for weeds in either the spring or fall.  If you have a very heavy infestation of weeds, you might consider doing both.
We are providing a DP program for those producers wanting to wait for a better day in the markets.  We can help develop a marketing plan and a floor price program.  Call Eric or Dave at 800-622-7937, Shon at 573-667-9921 or 768-0489.
We have updated our test plot results on our website.
You can check out our 2015 corn yields and some 2014 soybean and corn yields at:
Be sure to check out our website at: www.buchheitagri.com and see the marketing information available.  If you scroll down on the front page you will find our market info page supported by AgriCharts.  If you examine the left hand side of that page you will discover the options that allow you to create price graphs or charts and also to check on historical spread information.