Buchheit Morning Comments from Dave Danker Thursday August 11, 2016
Wednesday’s commodity market was higher for soybeans, lower for corn and wheat. Specs and commercials pushed the soybean market lower after the first day in over a week that USDA did not announce additional soybean sales to China. The Macro Markets were negative as the DOW was lower; Oil lower and the US Dollar Index trading lower. The Dow closed at 18,496 down 37 points for the day. Crude Oil closed at $41.49, down $1.05 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) September 16 to September 17 spread closed tonight at $6.03 carry to September 2017. September Heating Oil closed at $1.3127, down $0.0180 per gallon. The US Dollar Index closed at $95.66, down $0.48. The 10-year US Treasury bond closed up at a 1.51% yield and the 30-year bond closed at 2.23%. Wednesday’s CBOT closes were 0.25 to 1 cent per bushel higher for corn, 2.5 to 6.5 cents lower for soybeans and 1.5 to 4.75 cents higher for Chicago wheat. Cash bids at the river have traded at $10.40 after they reached $11.90+ for November through January for soybeans and SEP corn is trading around $3.50 after hitting a top in $4.65-4.75 area for JAN delivery corn. We are currently bidding about $0.15 to $0.20 behind those prices for the same time slots. Soybean Meal has been trending lower with October Meal closing at $331.90 about equal to the price level of late April. SBM has lost about $90 per ton from it’s high of $420 in mid-June.
Ethanol production last week averaged 1,018,000 barrels per day, up from 1,004,000 the previous week. Four-week average production is up 4.7% over year-ago levels. Ethanol stocks are at 20.5 million barrels, down 0.5% from last week, but up 10.8% from last year. Ethanol profits are running about $0.10 per gallon or about 25-30 cents per bushel of corn. RINS are trading at $0.84 per gallon, down 10 cents per gallon from last week. DDGS are currently trading at 102-105% of corn values – FOB the plant.
Dow Jones released their survey of analyst’s crop estimates this afternoon. The national corn yield was estimated at 14.8 Billion bushels (170.8 bpa) and the national soybean yield was estimated at 3.96 Billion bushels (47.6 bpa). Both of these estimates were within current expectations. The 2016-2017 Ending Stocks Estimate from this group average is approximately 2.35 billion bushels of corn and 323 million bushels of soybeans. Last week, Informa Economics have released a corn estimate of 168.7 bpa and a soybean estimate of 47.7 bpa. Other analysts are estimating the national corn crop to be between 171 and 176 bpa and the soybean crop to be between 48 and 51 bpa. Almost all estimates result in bigger ending stocks and most likely, lower prices.
Check out our Daily Grain Bids (updated every 10 minutes during the trading session) by clicking on: www.buchheitagri.com/biehle-grain-bids/ or www.buchheitagri.com/morehouse-grain-bids/ or feel free to call us at 800-622-7937 (ask for Katlyn, Eric or Dave) or call 573-667-9921 or 573-768-0489 and ask for Shon.
USDA Crop Progress reports released Monday afternoon estimated corn Good-Excellent condition at 74% versus 76% LW, 70% LYR and 58.8% for the 5-year average. The soybean condition ratings were 72% GE, 72% LW and 63% last year with a 5-year average of 57.0%. Missouri Corn condition was reported as 75% GE, 76% LW, 53% LYR and 47.8% – 5yr. avg. Missouri Soybeans were 70% GE, 70% LW, 33% LYR and 41.9% – 5-year average. This report was bearish. Missouri corn condition is rated 22% better than last year and Missouri soybeans are 37% better than one year ago. We are still very much in a weather market! The current weather has been crop friendly and is pressuring prices.
Long Liquidation by the Specs and Commercials pushed the soybean and meal markets lower today as Specs sold 0 contracts of corn to finish the day at 115,000 contracts short. They sold 6,000 contracts of soybeans to close at 104,000 contracts long and they bought 6,000 contracts of wheat to close at 111,000 contracts short. Specs sold 2,000 contracts of SBM and are long 56,000 contracts of Soybean Meal.
CIF bids for corn and soybeans have weakened in the Gulf, wheat CIF is softer with August wheat at (25 bid-no offer), OND wheat (60 bid-no offer). October soybeans were quoted (89 bid-91 ask). August corn was quoted (60 bid-68 ask), Sep was quoted (65-71) and October corn was (69 bid-75 asked).
Barge freight has firmed. Freight firmed 60-70% in the last three weeks with the nearby August at 240-375. Harvest barges traded today at 375-500 for SEP and 490-510 for OCT.
Live Cattle futures were lower losing $0.08 to $0.30; Feeder Cattle were lower, and Lean Hog futures were $0.20 to $0.95 higher. August Live Cattle closed at $116.85, down $0.13 and October closed at $114.93, down $0.08. August Feeder Cattle closed at 149.73, down $0.45 and October Feeder Cattle closed at $145.83, down $0.20. Lean Hogs were higher in the majority of the options in the Lean Hog market. August closed at $67.13, up $0.20.
Fescue prices were quite strong during the 2016 Harvest. We paid prices to range from $0.48 to $0.50 per pound. A good fescue fertility program involves the addition of 40 lbs. of nitrogen per acre in late August, followed by an application of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in the spring. You can spray 2,4-D and Dicamba for weeds in either the spring or fall. If you have a very heavy infestation of weeds, you might consider doing both.
Please mark your calendar for our annual “Tech Park Field Day”! Wednesday, August 24, 2016 12:00 pm to 2:00 pm and 5:00 pm to 7:00 pm at the I-55 Tech Park. Join us for population studies, herbicide trials, the latest seed varieties, triad pant hormone trials, and much more! You will get the chance to visit and learn from top agronomy experts, seed, fertilizer, and chemical vendors, and implement dealers. Food and drinks will also be provided! RSVP by Friday August 12th by calling 573-547-4569, emailing email@example.com, or at http://www.buchheitagri.com/tech-park-field-day-registration/
We have updated our test plot results on our website, you can check out our 2015 corn yields and some 2014 soybean and corn yields at: http://www.buchheitagri.com/tech-park-data
Be sure to check out our website at: www.buchheitagri.com and see the marketing information available. If you scroll down on the front page you will find our market info page supported by AgriCharts. If you examine the left hand side of that page you will discover the options that allow you to create price graphs or charts and also to check on historical spread information.
We are providing a DP program for those producers wanting to wait for a better day in the markets. We can help develop a marketing plan and a floor price program. Call Katlyn, Chad, Eric or Dave at 800-622-7937, Shon at 573-667-9921 or 768-0489.